Celtics vs. Bucks: Why this series is challenging for sharps

Are the Milwaukee Bucks as good as they looked when obliterating the Detroit Pistons? Can they play that well all the way to an NBA title?

Getting a proper read on the Bucks could be key to having a profitable postseason. Betting markets expect Milwaukee to play three more rounds. The Bucks are -300 favorites to advance past the Boston Celtics (risk $300 just to win $100), then would be favorites over the Toronto Raptors, but underdogs in the NBA Finals should they meet West favorite Golden State.

Betting markets clearly underpriced Milwaukee throughout the 2018-19 season. The Bucks went 47-31-4 against the spread for a 60 percent cover rate. Then, they went 4-0 ATS vs. Detroit, beating market prices by 23, six, seven and 11 points.

That's 51-31-4 overall. Clearly the best point-spread record in the league, though oddsmakers usually shade against "great" teams because that's whom the public wants to bet.

Does Boston have any hopes of derailing this locomotive? William Hill has the Celtics as an eight-point underdog in Sunday's series opener (ABC, 1 p.m.). Let's use the same "tale of the tape" indicator stats we discussed in Saturday's Raptors-76ers preview:

Offensive efficiency: Milwaukee's fast-paced attack ranked third in the NBA during regular season at 111.5 points per 100 possessions. Boston ranked a very respectable eighth (considering its inconsistent health) at 110.1.

Defensive efficiency: Milwaukee had the best defense in the league. You know how much sharps love betting great defenses for value. Boston ranked sixth, and certainly showed off its defense in the first round vs. Indiana (granting that the Pacers are easy to defend).

Rebound rate: Big edge to the Bucks, who tied Philadelphia for the No. 2 spot in the NBA, grabbing 52.3 percent of available boards. Boston was below average, ranking 21st at 49.3 percent.

3-point shooting: Wow … it's becoming crystal clear why Milwaukee was such a juggernaut. The Bucks averaged 13.5 makes per game in the regular season, second only to Houston in the NBA. They did so at a 35.3 percent clip. Boston ranked sixth in makes at 12.6, nailing 36.5 percent. In the first round, Milwaukee rained down 15, 11, 14 and 10 on Detroit. Boston was also solid, making 10, 11, 15 and 11 vs. Indiana.

Milwaukee has the perfect playoff profile outside of its inexperience: great defense, great rebounding, 3-point volume and consistency. Bettors must determine if the Bucks' youthful energy will allow them to keep playing at such a high level of both sides of the floor … or if peak pressure will cause a Milwaukee meltdown.

As was the case with Toronto, you can see why quants would project Milwaukee to dominate. Has the market now overshot the mark with such a high Game 1 point spread? You're going to give Boston head coach Brad Stevens that many points? Kyrie Irving's just going to throw in the towel?

It's a fascinating series for handicappers and bettors because Goliath does have potential vulnerabilities … and Boston's no David. Yet, Goliath has been winning money for smart bettors all season.

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